Comments on: How bad is the recession? http://quoderat.megginson.com/2009/03/12/how-bad-is-the-recession/ Open information and technology. Mon, 05 Dec 2011 09:40:58 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: david http://quoderat.megginson.com/2009/03/12/how-bad-is-the-recession/#comment-2325 Fri, 13 Mar 2009 00:14:19 +0000 http://www.megginson.com/blogs/quoderat/?p=243#comment-2325 stand: thanks for the second comment, because it gives me a chance to make up for any overstatement in my posting.

I have no problem with people talking about how things actually are — we’re in a tough recession, and people are losing jobs, retirement savings, etc. I’m complaining only about the people who deliberately exaggerate it just to get attention or score political points, and talk about things that the numbers don’t seem to support, like another depression, or the complete collapse of the West, etc.

]]> By: stand http://quoderat.megginson.com/2009/03/12/how-bad-is-the-recession/#comment-2324 Thu, 12 Mar 2009 23:17:56 +0000 http://www.megginson.com/blogs/quoderat/?p=243#comment-2324 Interesting, David. So granting your point about fear-mongering (and I do agree with it) how should a responsible person behave if s/he genuinely believes things are bad and wants to warn others? Or is it just a matter of not being self-righteous about it?

I might adopt a fear-mongering strategy presuming that it would be more effective at getting the word out. Perhaps I’ve decided that the risk of making things worse is outweighed by the possibility of getting more people to take the situation seriously. Markets may or may not be 100% unpredictable (not sure myself), but there is no question that they are affected by behavior. Economic indicators are ultimately just a *measure of* behavior.

I might freak out a lot of people with my fear-mongering, but if I can get a larger number of people to settle down it might be a net win.

]]> By: david http://quoderat.megginson.com/2009/03/12/how-bad-is-the-recession/#comment-2323 Thu, 12 Mar 2009 21:49:03 +0000 http://www.megginson.com/blogs/quoderat/?p=243#comment-2323 stand: that’s a good point, and there’s no way to tell when they’ve bottomed out. Personally, I’m a random-walk type, so I believe that the markets and the economy are *always* 100% unpredictable: things are just as likely to crash tomorrow whether we’re in a recession or a boom.

That said, I think the fearmongering actually does help force the indicators lower, so those people deserve some of the blame for the situation they’re self-righteously complaining about.

]]> By: stand http://quoderat.megginson.com/2009/03/12/how-bad-is-the-recession/#comment-2322 Thu, 12 Mar 2009 21:26:24 +0000 http://www.megginson.com/blogs/quoderat/?p=243#comment-2322 This is a good point, but it’s not the values of the indicators themselves that worry me but the trends: rates of change, volatility, and direction.

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